Alphabet Earnings

President Trump's escalation against Iran has pushed crude oil to its highest level in six weeks—think of oil like the bloodstream of global commerce, and right now it's pumping faster, raising costs everywhere (Guardian Business, WSJ Markets). That's creating inflation fears: the bond market is crumbling, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting fresh cycle highs, and traders have suddenly priced in a 30% chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week—a move that would make borrowing more expensive for everyone from companies to homeowners. Stock futures are slipping 0.8% as investors flee to safety, pulling down Bitcoin and crypto alongside them.

Google's parent company reports results today (July 22), and this is the moment the market has been waiting for: proof that the hundreds of billions tech giants have poured into artificial intelligence are delivering real returns (CoinDesk). Investors are holding their breath because unlike traditional earnings, where you're judging past performance, this is a bet on whether these companies' massive bets on AI will eventually print money. If Alphabet disappoints, it could trigger a domino effect across all of Big Tech—and crypto markets are literally waiting for this verdict before moving.

While Alphabet faces pressure to show AI returns, Tesla has an inverted problem—the stock is down 16% this year, and investors actually want the company to spend *more* on artificial intelligence, not less (Bloomberg via CoinDesk). This is unusual: normally, investors cheer when companies promise to be disciplined with capital; here, Tesla's investors are saying the company is falling behind in the AI arms race. If Elon Musk signals bigger AI spending in Tesla's earnings today, shares could pop.