Market Overview
Markets are caught between AI-driven optimism and geopolitical chaos that's pushing oil toward $100 while threatening global trade.
Oil prices have breached $95 a barrel for the first time in six weeks as escalating US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats in the Red Sea disrupt global supplies. Brent crude hit $95.24 on Wednesday before easing to $94.40, up more than 3% on the day (Guardian Business). Goldman Sachs analysts warn markets could hit $120 by year-end unless Hormuz exports restart, though emergency oil releases and alternative shipping routes have cushioned the blow so far.
President Trump announced 50% tariffs on most Canadian imports—excluding energy, potash, fish, and critical minerals—effective in 30 days, accusing Canada of unfair discrimination against US autos, alcohol, and dairy (NPR Business). This invokes a Great Depression-era law (Section 338) that experts call the "nuclear option" for tariff authority and risks destabilizing global trade. Canadian Premier Doug Ford vowed "tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar" retaliation, while US Democrats warn the move will raise consumer prices and harm the industries Trump claims to protect.
Brent crude rallied more than 3% to $94.07 per barrel and WTI advanced 3% to $86.83 after Secretary of State Marco Rubio told foreign ministers that Iran is "not serious" about ending the conflict, despite Trump's threats to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants (CNBC Energy). Oil prices have surged over 20% this month as the US launches its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military targets. The combination of Hormuz chokepoint disruptions and Houthi embargoes on ships serving Saudi ports keeps crude supported in the $90–$100 range.