Market Overview

The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed a committee genuinely divided — some members see inflation cooling enough to justify cuts, others see it staying hot enough to warrant hikes, and chairman Kevin Warsh declined to tip his hand either way (CNBC). The fed funds rate (the benchmark overnight lending rate between banks) stays parked at 3.5%-3.75%, where it has sat all of 2026, and the dot plot — a grid showing each official's rate forecast — only narrowly tilted toward one hike this year before cuts in the two years following. Officials flagged AI infrastructure demand as a persistent upward pressure on tech prices and electricity, even as Warsh himself believes AI will ultimately cool inflation through productivity gains. The practical takeaway: the Fed is on genuine hold, not a dovish hold or a hawkish hold, and markets shouldn't expect clear guidance anytime soon — that ambiguity is the message.

Crude oil surged Wednesday after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over at the NATO summit in Turkey, threatening renewed bombing and a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil flows — following fresh Iranian attacks on tankers (CNBC). West Texas Intermediate (WTI, the U.S. crude benchmark) jumped 4.4% to $73.52 per barrel, while Brent crude (the global benchmark) rose 5.2% to $78.02, though both eased off session highs after Trump said he didn't expect a return to full-scale war. The U.S. struck over 80 Iranian targets overnight — air defenses, radar sites, anti-ship missile systems — and the Treasury cancelled its authorization for Iran to sell oil, tightening the supply picture further. Iran's threat to close Hormuz entirely is the tail risk that keeps traders honest; even partial disruption to that waterway sends supply-shock math in a very uncomfortable direction.

Iran attacked at least three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz this week — including a Qatari LNG tanker — blowing up a fragile interim peace deal and triggering an immediate U.S. response: the Treasury Department revoked its authorization for Iranian oil sales, which had been waived through Aug. 21 under last month's memorandum of understanding (CNBC). The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil chokepoint, handling roughly 20% of global oil traffic, and Iran has mined the traditional central route, forcing ships toward a U.S. Navy-protected corridor it keeps attacking. Brent crude (the international oil benchmark) settled 3% higher at $74.16 per barrel before spiking another 5.6% after hours to $76.04 on the sanctions news; WTI (the U.S. benchmark) followed to $72.25 after hours. Washington's message was blunt —