Private Markets Sector

Thames Water's lenders are offering the government a "golden share"—basically a veto button over major decisions like mergers—plus more local authority control to prevent the company being taken over by the state (BBC Business). The offer adds hundreds of millions in fresh cash on top of a previous £10bn rescue proposal that was rejected in June; if the government nationalises instead, creditors say they'll demand full repayment of multi-billion-pound debts, leaving taxpayers footing a massive bill. This is a high-stakes poker game: the government wants public control of water supplies, private lenders want to avoid losses, and households just want their taps to work.

UK outsourcer Mitie—which has 84,000 employees and handles everything from government cleaning to security—agreed to a £3.1bn takeover by rival OCS Group, which is owned by private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (Guardian Business). Shareholders are getting 221.6p per share, a 46.8% premium to Monday's close, ending nearly four decades as a public company. This deal mirrors a broader exodus from London's stock market: Intertek, easyJet, Beazley and Schroders have all agreed takeovers this year, partly because the new government has signalled the "age of outsourcing is over" and plans mass insourcing of public services.

SpaceX set August 4 as its first earnings report after its record-breaking $85.7bn IPO in June, which coincides with a major unlock event (CNBC). The company used a novel staggered lock-up structure: insiders can sell 20% of eligible shares (up to 911.5 million) starting August 6, with another 10% freed if the stock closes at least 30% above the $135 IPO price for five of ten trading days beforehand. As of Monday, SpaceX shares had lost 57% from their intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, creating a perfect storm of falling valuations and expiring restrictions that could flood the market with seller pressure.