Higher crude prices drove India's import bill up sharply despite flat volumes, while Vitol stepped in to buy discounted Iraqi crude hampered by Persian Gulf tanker shortages. At the same time, oil prices fell as traders weighed US-Iran truce talks against Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, and Jefferies downgraded major US refiners on stretched valuations. Political debate also intensified over potential US diesel export bans following record fuel prices.
01Macro
India's Oil Import Bill Surges 48% Amid Higher Global Crude Prices
India paid $74.8 billion for imports between April and August, marking a 48.4% increase from the same period last year. Government data released on Tuesday shows the country spent $24.4 billion more on purchases despite a 0.4% drop in import volumes to 100.7 million metric tons over the five-month period. International price spikes and constrained flows from the Middle East drove the surge, alongside a 400% jump in freight rates on the route from Ras Tanura to India since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28. September import costs will climb further as trades at $100 per and the Indian crude import basket averages $114.80 a barrel.
Nth Cycle Signs $1 Billion Nickel Offtake Agreement with Glencore
Nth Cycle signed a ten-year offtake agreement valued at over $1 billion with Glencore to supply recycled critical minerals. Under the binding term sheet, Glencore will provide approximately 24,000 tonnes per year of black mass from its US shredding operations to Nth Cycle. Nth Cycle will process the shredded battery materials using its proprietary Oyster electrochemical extraction technology at a planned facility in South Carolina named Project SHIELD. In return, Nth Cycle will supply Glencore with battery-grade lithium carbonate and a nickel-rich mixed hydroxide product over the decade-long contract. The contract value is based on forecasted metals pricing figures as of the second quarter of 2026, with actual delivery amounts dependent on the mineral content of the received black mass. The partnership secures 100 percent of the projected feedstock and offtake needs for Project SHIELD, which doubled its planned processing capacity following agreements with Glencore and Trafigura. The deal follows a $100 million grant awarded to Nth Cycle by the US Department of Energy in August to support commercial refining construction. Operations at the new refining site are expected to begin by 2029, and the companies are targeting the execution of definitive agreements by the end of 2026. Nth Cycle also recently announced plans to list publicly through a with Kensington Corp. VI that values the company at $585 million.
Vitol Purchases 25 Million Barrels of Discounted Iraqi Crude Oil
Vitol purchased at least 25 million barrels of September-loading Iraqi at deep discounts, helping Baghdad maintain exports amid severe shipping constraints in the Persian Gulf. Iraq's state oil marketing organization SOMO offered September cargoes at discounts ranging from $15 to $20.80 per relative to its official selling prices. These price concessions provide the logistics and tanker capacity Iraq lacks, as the country possesses no large proprietary fleet and southern terminals sit deep inside the Persian Gulf. Freight costs have surged as vessel owners demand higher premiums to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic remains depressed below prewar levels. Vitol operates one of the largest oil trading and shipping networks globally, allowing it to move barrels that would otherwise remain stranded. Iraqi exports from southern ports recovered to average 2.35 million barrels per day in August and have climbed to approximately 2.6 million barrels per day in September.
President Donald Trump announced support for restricting U.S. diesel exports as national pump prices climbed to a record $6.52 per gallon. Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration was reviewing the feasibility of a full or partial ban, though Energy Secretary Chris Wright and the White House subsequently rejected a blanket export ban. The national average diesel price stood at $2.82 higher than the same period last year, squeezing American farmers and truckers ahead of the November midterms. Global refinery throughput in August reached 81.4 million barrels per day, sitting 4.2 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels due to disruptions in Russia, the Middle East, and Asia. U.S. refiners produce about 5.3 million barrels per day of distillate fuel while domestic demand averages 3.6 million barrels per day. Major industry groups, including the American Petroleum Institute and the National Association of Manufacturers, warned in a joint letter that export curbs would force refiners to cut runs and ultimately raise prices for gasoline and jet fuel. The administration faces conflicting pressures as it weighs energy intervention against the warnings of energy executives and trade associations.
Oil Prices Fall as Markets Monitor Iran Truce Prospects
channelnewsasia.com reports that oil prices fell slightly on Friday as markets weighed the possibility of a truce between the US and Iran against the bombing of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels. was down 74 cents to $105.85 a , while fell 81 cents to $93.80 a barrel. The session followed a week of that pushed oil to a one-week high on Thursday, during which Brent rose 3.4 per cent and WTI gained 2.7 per cent. US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia intercepted six ballistic missiles fired by Yemen's Houthis, thwarting attacks on the southern province of Taif and the Yanbu area on the Red Sea.
Michigan Judge Dismisses State's Antitrust Lawsuit Against Major Oil Companies
A federal court dismissed Michigan's lawsuit against four major oil companies and their primary trade association on September 22. U.S. District Judge Jane Beckering ruled that the state lacked antitrust standing to sue under federal law because the link between the alleged 1979 conspiracy and current energy prices was too remote. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel had filed the 126-page action in January, alleging that BP, Chevron, Exxon, Shell, and the American Petroleum Institute coordinated to suppress , electric vehicles, and charging infrastructure to protect fossil fuels. The state argued this collusion left consumers paying artificially high prices for household energy and transport. Judge Beckering found that while energy overcharges represented a plausible antitrust injury, the causal chain spanning nearly five decades was too attenuated to prove proximate cause. The court also held that effects such as climate-related damage, higher property insurance premiums, and public mitigation spending fell outside the scope of antitrust law. The Sherman Act claim was dismissed with prejudice, while a separate claim under the Michigan Antitrust Reform Act was dismissed without prejudice, leaving the state free to refile it in a Michigan state court.
Jefferies Downgrades Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum on High Valuations
Jefferies Financial Group downgraded Valero Energy Corporation and Marathon Petroleum from Buy to Hold, setting price targets of $401 and $413 respectively after both refiners saw their share prices more than double over the past year. Analysts led by Lloyd Byrne wrote that current share prices imply mid-2030 margins close to 2025 levels even if forward prices remain elevated through 2029, leaving valuations stretched amid tight refining fundamentals with no clear solution. The report warns that product prices must rise further to spur demand destruction or government intervention may follow, pointing to growing political support for a potential US refined product export ban ahead of the midterm elections. Byrne advises holding existing positions to await better entry points through market . At Tuesday's US stock market close, Valero Energy fell 4.10 percent to $377.14, leaving it up 135 percent year-to-date, while Marathon Petroleum dropped 3.16 percent to $389.68, maintaining a 142 percent gain for the year.
Refiner Share Prices and Targets ($)
Valero and Marathon trade below Jefferies' price targets after recent pullbacks
Supply chain bottlenecks and political interventions are complicating global fuel markets alongside shifting geopolitical risks. Whether looming export restrictions or Persian Gulf tanker shortages will trigger broader regional product deficits remains the critical question for traders tomorrow.
This, every morning.
SuMarket writes Energy and Oil Sector every morning, along with every other section of the market and the companies and topics you follow. Free to read.