Global Stock Markets
Global markets were driven by surging energy prices and trade shifts, with Brent crude reaching $83.55 as Strait of Hormuz vessel transits dropped significantly. China reported a 23.9% jump in July exports driven by chip demand and tariff front-running, while Japanese household spending fell 3.3%. Central banks accumulated a record $45 billion in gold during Q2, pushing price forecasts up to $5,000 per ounce.
The U.S. dollar traded around 158.36 yen on Friday, heading for a 0.7% weekly gain as doubts over a Persian Gulf peace deal sparked safe-haven demand and pushed crude oil prices higher. Brent crude rose $1.31 to $83.80 per barrel following reports that a proposal between Iran and Oman could give Tehran control over inbound shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a condition U.S. officials maintain they will not accept. Elevated energy costs fueled fresh inflation concerns across bond markets, lifting Treasury yields and supporting the greenback. The rebound erases a substantial portion of the dollar's drop on Monday, when joint intervention by Japanese and U.S. authorities knocked the currency down from near 163 yen to a 13-week low of 155.20. Rate expectations also shifted higher after a Financial Times report indicated Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is open to a September interest rate hike if inflation data remains sticky. Traders now await the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, with consensus estimates predicting 80,000 jobs added in July alongside an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%.
Portuguese fuel prices are set for a sharp drop starting August 10, with diesel expected to fall by 12 cents per liter and petrol by 12.5 cents, according to forecasts from the Automobile Club of Portugal reported by euronews.com. The decline would bring average pump prices down to 1.931 euros per liter for regular diesel and 1.855 euros per liter for 95-octane unleaded petrol, down from 2.051 euros and 1.980 euros. Local filling stations operate in a liberalized market and set their own forecourt pricing, though weekly changes track international crude market closes. Regional military strikes involving the US, Israel, and Iran have repeatedly disrupted crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, driving extreme price volatility across European consumer markets. To cushion retail buyers from energy shocks, the Portuguese government automatically adjusts its temporary ISP fuel tax discount whenever wholesale moves trigger price shifts exceeding 10 cents per liter. Because final retail rates incorporate state tax adjustments alongside last-minute crude trading through Friday, exact savings at local pumps may fluctuate before Monday.
China's exports grew 23.9% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms in July, driving a $112.5 billion trade surplus as global demand for artificial intelligence hardware absorbed Chinese factory output, according to reporting from cnbc.com. The headline export figure beat analyst expectations of 22.2% growth, even as it moderated from June's 27% pace. High-tech components powered the expansion. Integrated circuit exports surged 117% by value from a year earlier in July, while broader shipments of mechanical and electrical products—including electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and industrial robotics—accounted for over 60% of total exports in the first seven months of the year. Front-running also played a role. Chinese suppliers accelerated U.S.-bound shipments ahead of a newly applied 12.5% Washington tariff rate, pushing export growth to the U.S. up to 17% in July from 14% in June. China's domestic economy remains weak. Retail sales grew just 1% in June and second-quarter GDP expanded at a subdued 4.3%, leaving foreign buyers as the primary growth engine for Chinese manufacturers. The resulting massive trade surplus continues to deepen friction with the U.S. and the European Union ahead of planned bilateral economic summits in September and October.