Global Stock Markets

The U.S. dollar traded around 158.36 yen on Friday, heading for a 0.7% weekly gain as doubts over a Persian Gulf peace deal sparked safe-haven demand and pushed crude oil prices higher. Brent crude rose $1.31 to $83.80 per barrel following reports that a proposal between Iran and Oman could give Tehran control over inbound shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a condition U.S. officials maintain they will not accept. Elevated energy costs fueled fresh inflation concerns across bond markets, lifting Treasury yields and supporting the greenback. The rebound erases a substantial portion of the dollar's drop on Monday, when joint intervention by Japanese and U.S. authorities knocked the currency down from near 163 yen to a 13-week low of 155.20. Rate expectations also shifted higher after a Financial Times report indicated Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is open to a September interest rate hike if inflation data remains sticky. Traders now await the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, with consensus estimates predicting 80,000 jobs added in July alongside an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%.

Russian retail giant M.Video saw hardware wallet unit sales jump 107% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, while competitor Wildberries posted an 84% year-over-year surge in H1 unit sales as citizens prepare for new crypto regulations. According to coindesk.com, Russian investors are purchasing physical devices to store their private keys offline, moving assets into self-custody before the government tightens control over centralized exchanges. Russia’s new crypto framework takes effect September 1, setting a 300,000-ruble annual buying cap for tested retail investors and preserving a total ban on domestic payments. A longer transition period running until July 1, 2027, will eventually force all crypto transactions through regulated entities and prohibit digital depositories from transferring funds directly to personal non-custodial wallets. Self-custody eliminates exchange default risk, but it forces retail investors to assume full technical liability. Hardware devices do not bypass state withdrawal limits. Highlighting those security vulnerabilities, a firmware flaw disclosed by wallet manufacturer Coinkite on July 30 weakened seed generation and triggered more than $116 million in estimated crypto losses.

Iran finalized a temporary framework with Oman to establish designated shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, attempting to revive transit through a bottleneck that handles roughly 20% of global crude oil supply. Under the proposed two- to four-month agreement, inbound vessels will travel along routes near the Iranian coast while outbound ships use an Omani lane, with no transit or service fees imposed. Traffic through the gateway has collapsed. Consultant Kpler recorded just eight vessel crossings on August 5—five tankers and three bulk carriers—down from more than 100 ships daily before fighting broke out in late February. The drop in traffic has driven up global fuel prices, forced trade rerouting across regional logistics hubs, and left over half of recent transits operating without reliable AIS tracking signals. Normalizing flow will require consecutive weeks of incident-free transits, as an LNG tanker lost propulsion after being struck by an unknown projectile on August 2 while the U.S. maintains a naval blockade on Iranian ports.