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Monday, September 7, 2026

Global Stock Markets

In short · bearish

Global markets face headwinds as Japan foreign reserves dropped by a record $79.6 billion following yen interventions, while Iran economic conditions deteriorated under strict sanctions. European manufacturing is threatened by intense Chinese competition, prompting warnings of massive job cuts in 2026. Meanwhile, China is injecting $54 billion into its financial sector to support struggling banks and insurers.

01Macro

Japan's August Foreign Reserves See Record Drop Following Intervention

Relying on Fed repo facilities rather than outright Treasury liquidations keeps Japanese currency defense from triggering collateral fire sales in the U.S. sovereign debt market.

Japan's foreign reserves fell by a record $79.6 billion in August to $1.208 trillion, according to channelnewsasia.com citing Ministry of Finance data. The decline followed a record intervention where Tokyo spent 15.4 trillion yen, equivalent to $98.66 billion, between July 30 and August 26 to stem the yen's weakness. Foreign securities, which consist largely of U.S. , drove the decrease as authorities sold dollar-denominated . The intervention operations pushed the yen up from 40-year lows near 164 per dollar to 155.20 by August 3. Part of the currency defense involved a joint operation with the United States, marking the first coordinated intervention between the two nations since 2011. Tokyo and Washington also pointed to a backstop introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic that allows Japan to raise dollar without selling U.S. Treasuries.

August Foreign Reserves Drop ($B)

Reserves fell by $79.6 billion in a single month.

July
1287
August
1208

channelnewsasia.com

02Company specific

Standard Chartered Expands China Wealth Management Business Despite Tax Shift

Wealth managers rely on the Hong Kong-to-mainland capital corridor to drive profit growth, accepting local regulatory risk to capture mainland off-shoring demand.

Standard Chartered is expanding its wealth management operations across Hong Kong, mainland China, and Taiwan by opening new luxury centres and hiring additional staff. scmp.com reports that the London-headquartered lender is proceeding with its expansion strategy despite stricter enforcement of taxes on cross-border investments by Beijing. Judy Hsu Chung-wei, chief executive for wealth and retail banking, stated that the bank remains confident in the Greater China wealth corridor. Hong Kong currently serves as the bank's largest single market, generating one-third of its first-half pre-tax profit. The lender recently launched its seventh Hong Kong wealth centre in Causeway Bay.

scmp.com

03Risk signal

Alternative for Germany Poised for Far-Right Regional Election Triumph

A far-right victory in a German industrial state threatens public subsidies for green transition projects while raising sovereign borrowing costs across European periphery markets.

Alternative for Germany is projected to win over 44% of the vote in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, marking a major triumph for the far-right party as reported by fortune.com. The projected result more than doubles the party's showing from five years ago in the region of 2.1 million people. Chancellor Friedrich Merz experienced a severe blow as his Christian Democratic Union was projected to poll 18%, losing about half its support. While exit polls and partial counts placed Alternative for Germany short of an absolute majority, party leaders claimed a clear mandate to govern. Mainstream parties maintained their refusal to form coalitions with the far-right group, leaving the path to forming the state government uncertain.

Saxony-Anhalt Election Vote Share (%)

Alternative for Germany more than doubled its vote share to over 44 percent.

AfD
44
CDU
18

fortune.com

04Macro

Iranian Supreme Leader Warns of Economic and Social Pressure From US Sanctions

Landlocked oil exporters lacking refining capacity face immediate social instability when currency collapse coincides with a maritime blockade on their primary foreign exchange earner.

fortune.com reports that Iran is facing severe economic and social pressure as a result of intensifying United States sanctions and a naval blockade. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian estimated that national trade has plunged 25 percent to 35 percent, driven by a sharp drop in imports. The rial has crashed to 2.2 million per U.S. dollar, down from roughly 1 million a year ago. has soared above 80 percent, with prices for certain food staples doubling. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei warned officials to protect social cohesion amid long gas lines and rising protests. Meanwhile, the Department announced an economic campaign to shut down remaining channels for oil exports and sanctions evasion. Iran is currently left with only two months of gasoline supplies due to limited domestic refining capacity.

Exchange Rate (rials per USD)

The rial has more than halved against the dollar in a year.

1 Year Ago
1.0M
Current
2.2M

fortune.com

05Macro

EU Industry Warns of 300,000 Factory Job Cuts From Chinese Supply Chain Pressure

When domestic carbon taxes and steel tariffs inflate input costs for regional factories, unburdened offshore component suppliers gain a structural price advantage that hollows out local supply chains.

Eurometal warns that 300,000 European factory jobs will vanish in the remainder of 2026 due to surging competition from Chinese component manufacturers. According to theguardian.com, the trade body plans to stage a protest at the European Commission headquarters using 10 symbolic coffins to highlight the pressure on regional competitiveness. The EU currently runs a record €1bn-a-day with China, while the bloc's annual with the country sits at €360bn. European producers face mounting cost disadvantages from local carbon taxes and steel that Chinese rivals bypass entirely. European Commission analysis from June projects total potential job losses exceeding 1 million due to high energy costs and global competition, a figure that already includes 100,000 confirmed cuts at Volkswagen. Meanwhile, both trading blocs have agreed to a three-month truce ending in October to negotiate terms and avert an escalating trade war.

theguardian.com

06Policy

China Prepares £40 Billion Financial Sector Stimulus Package

Using non-financial state monopolies to recapitalize insurers and state banks via private placements exposes how Beijing must cannibalize state enterprise balance sheets to fund artificial credit expansion.

theguardian.com reports that China will inject $54bn into its financial sector to shore up banks and insurers facing sluggish growth. State institutions including the ministry of finance and the company running the country's tobacco will supply billions of yuan in to major financial institutions. China Life Insurance will receive 35bn yuan, while China Taiping Insurance Group expects 7bn yuan. Separately, the Agricultural Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China plan to raise up to 160bn yuan and 100bn yuan respectively through private A-share placements. The proceeds will replenish cash reserves to sustain credit expansion as Beijing leans on state banks to support the broader economy despite weak loan demand.

State Bank Capital Injections (bn yuan)

Agricultural Bank and ICBC lead the planned capital raises.

Agri Bank
160
ICBC
100

theguardian.com

07Opportunity signal

Oman Increases Investments in Renewable Energy Projects

Establishing a formal carbon markets regulatory framework alongside heavy fossil production allows state exporters to de-risk private capital crowd-in without sacrificing legacy hydrocarbon export revenue.

oilprice.com reports that Oman is pursuing a major expansion of solar, wind, and energy storage capacity through 2030 alongside continued fossil fuel production. The Ministry of Energy and Minerals launched a revised net zero emissions strategy and a carbon markets regulatory framework this year to attract private investment. Minister of Energy Salim Al Aufi stated that average and condensate production is around 1 million barrels per day, gas output is over 151 million cubic metres a day, and exports exceed 11 million metric tonnes. The country plans to add around 5.7 gigawatts of solar and over 2 gigawatts of wind power by the end of the decade. Completed projects include the 50 megawatt Dhofar I wind farm commissioned in 2019 and the 500 megawatt Ibri II solar project online in 2021. Two solar power stations with a combined capacity of 1 gigawatt commenced operations in January 2025 in the Wilayat of Manah. Additional developments include the French EDF led Wadi Dhayka Hydro Pump project, which will provide almost 1.98 gigawatts of capacity and 17,970 megawatt hours of storage.

Oman Renewable Capacity Additions (MW)

Oman's solar projects range from 50 MW to 1,000 MW of capacity.

Dhofar I
50
Ibri II
500

oilprice.com

Key takeaway

Heavy state interventions in Asia and Middle Eastern trade collapses point to deep structural pressures across major economies. Whether China stimulus and expansionary wealth plans can offset rising European industrial layoffs and geopolitical friction is the open debate.

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